Week 10 was a quiet week in the race for Trevor Lawrence with The Jets and Cowboys on bye. The Jaguars nearly pulled a huge upset over the Green Bay Packers, even as 13.5 point underdogs. For context, since 2003 only about 14% of teams who were double-digit underdogs outright won (yet 53.6% covered the point spread, so go figure). Double-digit underdogs are only 1-13 in 2020, so at least statistically it feels like we are due for another big upset at some point in the next 7 weeks.
Here is where the Trevor-thon 5000 numbers stand after Week 10:
The Jets and Jaguars now hold a 92% stranglehold on the first pick. These numbers are just a forecast from today's data, so things can change drastically with just one result. Look at the Giants who sat at 17% just three weeks ago, yet two straight wins later and they're now about 1-in-500 to secure the first pick. However, it's increasingly unlikely that the top spot won't be occupied by one of these two teams just given how much would need to go wrong (that is if you consider winning games to be doing something "wrong").
The Lawrence Index for Week 11 shows that this is a pivotal week for the Jets, as they head to the west coast to face the Chargers. The Chargers themselves currently are pacing to hold the 5th pick in the draft, and they are one of the few teams left with even a remote possibility of the first pick. We can actually see the direct impact of potentially losing to the Jets, as the Chargers have far more leverage in this game (about 3.8% of upside) than the #4 team, Washington (1.6% of upside against the Cincinnati Bengals)
The Lawrence Index also displays the clear impact of "trap games," games that may be more winnable than others. The Jaguars face the 9-0 Pittsburgh Steelers, whom they are obviously expected to lose to again. Therefore, their upside of losing is only about 3%, while the Jets upside in more of a trap game is 7.4% because they actually are expected to win more frequently than an average game for them. With the Jaguars facing projected playoff teams in 4 of their next 5 games, the pressure will be on the Jets to avoid these traps.
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