We have officially reached an inflection point in the race towards the top of the 2021 NFL Draft. While the race inevitably has been destined to come down to the New York Jets vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars, I really did not think we would be at the 99% confidence interval with six weeks still to go. It feels unfathomable to have two teams be this much further ahead in the race with this much time left. Just look at their Trevor-thon 5000 probabilities rising over the last six weeks, while everyone else converges on zero:
I mean look at how perfect that pattern is! That is what happens when the worst team loses 10 in a row and the second worst loses 9 straight. There are no valleys; only peaks. Even the second pick is mostly the same two teams, although gives much more of a glimmer of hope to the field (about 18%).
In a normal year, one would expect the records to be more tightly bound together and fluctuating based on the results of that week. Since the re-alignment in 2003, only two teams have gone winless and three have gone 1-15. Never have one of each happened in the same season. In fact, the first pick last year, the Arizona Cardinals, went 3-13. There are currently seven teams with exactly 3 wins, meaning someone might finish 3-13 and not even get a top 5 pick this year!
Compare the first two charts to the chart of the probability for the third overall pick, and I believe this is what this chart for the first pick would look like in most years -- pure chaos (hello, Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati though):
So while my initial intent behind the model and updating the blog every week has been to track the winding road to the first pick, I think that it generally will make more sense to focus on the race for the second and third pick for the rest of the year just because there is a lot more uncertainty to forecast there.
Here is a look at what the model projects as the most likely top 10 for the draft. Although note that the top 10 could never feature all 4 NFC East teams (what an indictment that is). So inevitably you would sub out the eventual division winner with the Houston Texans moving back up to #10. Although the Miami Dolphins own the Texans pick, so they would actually be the ones projected to pick 10th. Oh what a tangled web we weave.
The NFC East is officially a dog fight again, by the way. A few weeks back, I talked about how no team in NFL history had ever made the playoffs with 6 wins. Turns out even then we may have been too optimistic. We may now be looking like the division winner only getting 5 (keep in mind, the Eagles do have a tie on record):
Just for fun, here are all of the 5,000 simulation results where a team got the first pick.
The Eagles and Chargers both registered exactly one trial where they landed that coveted first pick. What would it take for that to actually happen? Trial number 2,583 saw the Eagles win the first pick at 3-12-1. The Jaguars got the second pick at 4-12, while the Jets somehow finished their season at 4-12 and fell at the way to number five. Trial number 4,175 saw the Chargers and Jets both go 3-13, but the Chargers took the tiebreaker. The Jaguars reinvigorated under Mike Glennon went 5-1 in their last six games to fall out to the 6th pick. It just goes to show the wacky results you can find at the tail end of any curve.
I will check back in next week to see how the race for the top three picks continues to shape up. Have a happy Thanksgiving!
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