How did we get here? The New York Jets had 4 (FOUR) yards of offense in the entire second half of their loss to the Buffalo Bills last week. I was thinking while watching that game of something former Redskin long snapper Ethan Albright once said in his infamous open letter to John Madden and EA Sports profanely criticizing their player rating criteria in Madden 2007, which I think sums up the Jets offense some 13 years later:
I also noticed that my kick return rating was a 0. I was rated a fucking zero? So you feel that I shouldn’t even receive a 10, or even a 5? You are pretty much saying that I couldn’t even fall forward on a ball kicked in my direction. I would just stand there and let the ball bounce off of my fucking face. Fuck that, John, I returned an onside kick 6 yards in 2002. You should have just slapped a – 4 on me and had the EA staff ambush me with paintball guns.
The good news for the Jets is that the 18-10 loss represented their first by one possession this entire season. Let's just ignore the fact that the Bills missed two field goals and had a long touchdown pass called back on holding. Just let them have that little victory because according to Tank-for-Trevor-thon 5000 it might be the only victory they see for awhile...
By popular demand, I turned the results into chart-form as well:
The biggest mover of the week was the Washington Football Team, whose beatdown of the Dallas Cowboys dropped their 1st pick percentage from 10% last week to 1.5% this week. The Cowboys themselves gained nearly 4% and are now looking at starting Ben Dinucci at QB this week. The funny part about that is the New York Giants remained steady at 13% even in losing, in large part because the model is recognizing Dallas as a far bigger dumpster fire than we had thought. Last week I touched on how historically bad the NFC East has started this season.
The race for Lawrence continues to look like a two-horse one between the Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars, with the two accounting for nearly 73% of 1st picks. Here is a look at their projected finishes side-by-side:
What's interesting is that Tank-for-Trevor-thon sees both teams finishing with the same amount of average wins the rest of the season, 1.9. However, the Jaguars already have a win in hand this season, which could loom large if this ends up as a race to 2-14. The Jaguars are on bye this week.
Meanwhile, the Jets host the Kansas City Chiefs. Just for funsies, I charted the Chiefs regular season outcomes as well and changed the shading from the worst record in football to how often they have the best record.
I like how it is almost perfectly symmetrical to the Jets chart. Think about this: The Chiefs are about as likely to get 15 wins (10.2%) as the Jets are to get 0 (10.9%). Trevor-thon gives the Jets about a 5% chance to win, which I have to assume is the estimated odds that Patrick Mahomes has a travel delay that keeps him out of New York all weekend. Otherwise, this game feels more like a social experiment than football.
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