Week 8 was a momentous one in the race for football's ultimate prize of futility. Previous dark horse first pick contenders the Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, and Denver Broncos all scored major upsets. The New York Giants nearly joined them with what would have been one of the biggest upsets in years, but a failed two-point conversion leaves them sitting with just one win. The New York Jets predictably were embarrassed by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Trevor-thon 5000 re-forecast for the first overall pick now looks like this:
The Jets moved from 47.5% last week to 53.3% this week, officially crossing the "better than a coin flip" test. However, I think this is deceptive as the Jaguars (who dropped 2.5%) were on bye. That means the Jets now have a loss in hand over the Jags (as do the Giants, who were up about 1%). The Jets bye is in two weeks and the Giants in three, which I imagine would bring their percentages down slightly and raise the Jaguars (assuming they kept losing).
With the Jets, Jaguars, Giants, and Cowboys now making up 95% of first picks, here is a look at their win distributions side-by side:
This week has same major implications, as the Jets (vs. New England Patriots, who have 4 losses in a row), Jags (vs. Texans, 1-6), and Giants (at Washington, 2-5) all have potentially winnable games. The Cowboys, who will likely be turning to their fourth string QB, face the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jaguars are also making this very interesting by bringing in sixth round rookie Jake Luton, seemingly embracing the battle they are in with the Jets, and potentially throwing a major monkey wrench into Trevor-thon's numbers going forward. Will this be a permanent change? Possibly too early to call, but most likely the Jaguars will be worse than how the team is currently forecasted.
I think what would be really interesting is to estimate the leverage index of each team's remaining games. In other words, estimate how many Trevor-thon points they would get by winning or losing that week's game. I wanted to get the updated numbers out today, but I think I can have the leverage index created before kickoff on Sunday, if not then for next week. Stay tuned for that!
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